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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 21 February 2025

The Polling organisations all agree that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are well ahead of the other parties with less than a week to go to the election. 

I’ve been following Mainstreet Research who project a PC win here in Newmarket-Aurora. Their latest analysis is derived from a survey of 1,243 adults, 18 years or older, living in Ontario.

“The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Ontario.”

Mainstreet asked the respondents how likely they were to vote in the upcoming Ontario election.

A staggering 82% said they were certain to vote. And 10% said they were likely to vote.

If this is indeed the case it will be a huge turnaround from June 2022 when Ontario had its lowest election turnout ever.

That said, polling organisations deliver results. Otherwise they would be out of business.

Extraordinary

But can Ontario-wide surveys capture local opinion in individual ridings where extraordinary things are happening?

What about the latest revelations about Dawn Gallagher Murphy in Newmarket-Aurora? 

The incumbent is being denounced by no fewer than eleven former employees who accuse her of bullying, harassment and racism.

I have never seen anything like it.

She is by their own account foul-mouthed and blasphemous. She spends taxpayers’ money on shameless self-promotion.

She refuses to attend debates with the other candidates.

Irony and self-awareness

In her first speech in the Chamber at Queen’s Park on 10 August 2022 she congratulated all the other members present. Without a hint of irony she said:

“Congratulations to you all! Putting your name forward on a ballot, going through the election process and receiving the support of your family, friends and volunteers is truly a unique experience, one I believe is a test of our dedication and commitment to our communities. Bravo to all of you for your strength, both mentally and physically. Well done!”

And this was from someone who in 2022 boycotted all election debates. And now in 2025 she has done it again!

Clearly, Gallagher Murphy does not consider debates with other candidates part of the “election process”.

Chris Ballard has challenged her to a one-on-one debate but she ignores him rather than jumping at the opportunity to defend her record and make her case.

No need to engage

She has made the calculation she doesn’t need to engage with the other candidates. She has identified her support, micro-targets her voters, lavishes money on them, plays to their agendas and gets them to the polling stations. 

338Canada has Newmarket-Aurora down as a “likely” PC hold with the Liberals being given a less than 5% chance of winning.

The pollster Eric Grenier characterises “safe” seats as ridings where a party has a very high likelihood of winning the seat. He says:

“Only an enormous error in the polls, the projection model or a very powerful local dynamic would result in another party winning the riding.”

Parapet

We need to see more of Gallagher Murphy’s former employees stick their heads above the parapet and speak out, not anonymously, but as named individuals. 

We shall see soon enough if there is a powerful local dynamic in play here in Newmarket-Aurora.

Or do we have to suffer this fraud for another four years?

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Details

Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 20 February 2025

In their latest shocking disclosure, we learn from Dawn Gallagher Murphy’s former employees that:

“following a Black History Month event... she referred to it as “woke bullshit.”

I am left wondering which event the foul-mouthed fraud Gallagher Murphy was referring to. I think the organisers of Black History month events in Newmarket-Aurora should get in touch with her and ask her to elaborate.

Was it this one? Just a few weeks ago on 3 February (photo right).

Gallagher Murphy trilled:

"Attended Aurora’s Pan-African Flag Raising with the Aurora Black Community, an inspiring and heartfelt start to Black History Month."

Or was it on 1 February 2024

"Joined Aurora Black Community Association today for the Pan-African flag raising, marking the start of #BlackHistoryMonth "..

Or 27 February 2024?

After this will she have the nerve to attend another Black History event?

Probably.

Meals for voters and all paid for by Gallagher Murphy

In the last provincial election the mendacious Gallagher Murphy spent thousand of dollars on meetings where she provided free meals for people whose support she courted. All this was under the radar during the campaign and the details only emerged months afterwards when candidates are required to submit details of their election spending to Elections Ontario.

We don’t know how many meetings she hosted, nor the venues nor when they took place. And because these were not fundraising events Elections Ontario says there is no requirement to give this information.

We shall get the details of her current campaign spending once it's all over - when the details no longer matter.

Another no-show

Another Gallagher Murphy no-show at the candidates’ Q&A in Aurora last night. Candidates standing in (1) Newmarket-Aurora and (2) Aurora, Oak Ridges and Richmond Hill were invited.

What was she was doing that was more important? 

We know for a fact she wasn’t unwell. She posted a photo of her helpers on Twitter (X) and gushed:

“Grateful for our incredible volunteers who came out today!”

In her absence, Chris Ballard challenged her to a one-on-one debate, any time, any place. There is zero chance she will accept.

Too afraid.

Gallagher Murphy still leads in latest Poll

A majority of people in Newmarket-Aurora don’t want the deceitful Dawn Gallagher Murphy as their MPP.

So what do we do about it? 

Wring our hands?

Or vote for a candidate with a fighting chance of beating this fraud.

People who are not Liberals and who are revolted by Gallagher Murphy’s behaviour should lend their vote to Chris Ballard for this election just to get rid of her.

That's what I'm doing.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 19 February 2025

The latest polling from Mainstreet Research shows Dawn Gallagher Murphy stretching her lead over Chris Ballard as the NDP's projected share of the vote rises at the expense of the Liberals.

The NDP's Denis Heng is projected to take 12.5% of the vote. In the last provincial election on 2 June 2022 he got 12.7%.

I like Denis and if he were breathing down Gallagher Murphy's neck I'd be urging people to vote for him. But that's not the case here.

A vote for the NDP in Newmarket-Aurora will, of course, boost their vote share provincially and that's an important consideration.

But not at the expense of returning the phoney Dawn Gallagher Murphy to Queen's Park.

Tactical Voting

People have been in touch with me following my post on tactical voting.

In a perfect world I would urge people to vote for their first preference but with first-past-the-post the winner takes all and this can produce terrible distortions especially when an election is being contested by many parties. So here in Newmarket-Aurora the bully, hypocrite and fraud, Dawn Gallagher Murphy, wins even though most people didn't vote for her.

Tactical voting is, of course, unnecessary in proportional voting systems.

But we don't have one and we may never have.

Winter Election

And why are we having an election in the middle of our frigid winter?

The first February election since 1883.

Most of our elections are in the warm summer months or in the Fall. June is a favourite with 17 provincial elections since 1867.

Mandate

Ford claims he needs a new mandate to deal with Donald Trump. But we all know that's untrue. All the parties at Queen's Park without exception will bury their differences to fight Trump's tariffs. They've all said as much.

Ford doesn't want to fight an election in Ontario if his friend Pierre Poilievre is Canada's new Prime Minister (after a short interregnum with a new Liberal PM)

It is a remarkable thing that over the last sixty years the Party in power federally at the time has - with only one exception - failed to win power provincially. (The table is from the CBC)

So if Pierre Poilievre wins the Federal election later this year history suggests Ford's Progressive Conservatives would find it more difficult to secure re-election here in Ontario.

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Update on 18 February 2025: From Newmarket Era: Doug Ford ignoring bullying allegations against Dawn Gallagher Murphy says Ballard

Update on 19 February 2025: From Newmarket Today: "Silence is Complicity".  ELEVEN former employees of Gallagher Murphy are now demanding action is taken against her.

Newmarket Today's Joseph Quigley writes: 

"Allegations against Gallagher Murphy first surfaced in December, when former constituency manager Teena Bogner filed a complaint at the Ontario Labour Relations Board, alleging Gallagher Murphy unfairly fired her after she raised concerns to PC Caucus Services about alleged harassment. That case was settled before the election campaign began, but a group of employees then came forward and hired a PR firm to share their own negative experiences working with Gallagher Murphy.

Those allegations include verbal abuse, calling and demanding work at unreasonable hours, lashing out, name-calling, not tolerating mistakes and reprimanding clothing choices in front of other employees.

In the news release, the group also discusses allegations of racism. In one case, following a Black History Month event, the group alleged she referred to it as “woke bullshit.”

Details

Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 18 February 2025

A new poll from Mainstreet Reseach puts Liberal challenger Chris Ballard within three percentage points of the PC incumbent, Dawn Gallagher Murphy.

It puts Gallagher Murphy on 43.1%; Chris Ballard on 40.3%; Denis Heng on 9.9% and the Greens on 6.7%

Ballard, a former Cabinet Minister, represented Newmarket-Aurora between 2014-2018.

Mainstreet Research is rated A-

Polling organisations are given ratings according to the accuracy of their projections.

If this poll truly reflects opinion on the ground and it is not a rogue then it changes everything.

If I were Chris Ballard I'd challenge Gallagher Murphy to a public debate and invite local news organisations to set it up - and dare her to say she has a "scheduling conflict". 

She can run but she can't hide.

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