Details

Last week, more people in Newmarket-Aurora didn’t vote for Dawn Gallagher Murphy than did. But she was still 2,537 votes ahead of her only serious challenger, the former Liberal Cabinet minister, Chris Ballard. 

But if the vote for the centrist Liberals (17,723) had combined with the vote for the NDP (2,709) then, interestingly, the Progressive Conservatives' Gallagher Murphy (20,260) would have lost to my hypothetical LibDipper by 172 votes. 

Of course, this is just a daydream. We are doomed to see this election outcome replayed again and again until the centre left parties get their act together. Too often the Liberals and NDP see themselves as mortal enemies who repeatedly split the vote allowing the PCs to waltz through the middle.

Mapping support for the Parties

Voting for the conservatives was, as usual, heaviest in Stonehaven and Copper Hills and the south eastern part of the riding. The Liberals did better in their traditional territory, the central spine of the riding between Yonge and Bayview with support concentrated in the old downtown area with its leafy streets and character. The NDP did not poll above 10% in any polling division. 

The Liberals had the highest vote in the advance polls. The full results are here with details of voting at retirement homes, condos and other specially designated polling places.

Voter Turnout

The big story for me was the collapse in voter turnout. Here in Newmarket-Aurora it was an anorexic 43.76% - down from 44.42% in the previous Provincial election on 2 June 2022. 

We do not know what would have happened if more people had voted. But, as a rule of thumb, conservatives do better when turnout is low. In fact, the lower the better.

This time, with Gallagher Murphy again boycotting candidate debates, refusing to answer legitimate questions about her behaviour towards her own employees and sticking with the simple message "Canada is not for sale" she sailed through the campaign to another easy win. 

Contrived

Doug Ford called the election 16 months early in the depths of winter claiming he needed a renewed mandate to fight Trump’s tariffs.

Yet his own riding had a pitifully low turnout of 34.4%. Two thirds of his own electors didn’t believe the hogwash about a new mandate and stayed at home.

As it stands, the PCs have three fewer MPPs than when Ford called this contrived election. (Some results are subject to recounts.)

We slept through this election and wake up to find Ford is back in the saddle for the next four years. 

But in a few months time we can expect a Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora, though run on materially different boundaries.

We shall see what happens then.

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Note: The recently published official results from Elections Ontario differ, in some cases quite significantly, from the unofficial results published immediately after the election on 27 February 2025. The table above shows the official results for Newmarket-Aurora with the unofficial results alongside.

Updated on 9 March 2025 to include details of the new redrawn boundary of the Federal riding of Newmarket-Aurora.

Update on 18 March 2025: From TVO's Steve Paikin: Analysis: Did the Opposition Parties help Ford win another majority?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Details

Now that Doug Ford has convincingly won the “Trump tariff” election I am left wondering what he intends to do with his new mandate.  

The Progressive Conservative platform, published only days before the election and after people had already cast their ballots in advanced voting, is now required reading.

Some of Ford’s promises are, of course, total non-starters. There is absolutely no possibility that Ford can

“Deliver a new driver and transit tunnel expressway under Highway 401 to provide a new, faster route through Canada’s busiest and most gridlocked section of highway, helping thousands of daily commuters get where they need to go faster.”

It’s a non-deliverable $100 billion dollar commitment aimed at construction workers who are some of Doug’s most fervent supporters. 

More billions on health

On health – where he again promises to spend billions - will the Ford Government underwrite the cost of a new Southlake? Unless the Provincial Government’s longstanding policy is changed, the Province will not pay for the land acquisition costs for new hospitals. So that means Southlake has got to find the money for its second site out of its own resources – or rely on a benefactor. It is not as if the Province is short of money:

“A re-elected PC government will continue to deliver on its ambitious plan for hospital expansion, with more than $50 billion to build or upgrade 50 hospitals across Ontario.”

Ford says he will be

“Encouraging municipalities to also accelerate and bring forward billions of dollars worth of planned municipal public infrastructure project tenders for roads, bridges, water and other infrastructure builds and repairs to get more people working faster and improve our economic competitiveness.”

Streamline

And to help them spend all these billions of dollars Ford says the Government

“will further streamline Ontario’s environmental assessment process”. 

I wait for details on that one.

There are, of course, all sorts of measures that never rated a mention in the PC Platform but will be dumped on us out of a clear blue sky. What if municipalities don’t move quickly enough to deliver on Ford’s agenda? What will he do? Abolish them or force them into mergers with their neighbours?

Who knows?

Gallagher Murphy walks on water

Anyway... as we all now know Dawn Gallagher Murphy has been returned as our MPP in Newmarket-Aurora. 

She endured bad publicity but followed the old dictum: "Never explain. Never complain".

She took it all on the chin and it worked. 

She got 47.4% of the vote with Chris Ballard trailing on 41.9% – a difference of 2,425 votes (but down from her winning margin of 5,602 in the June 2022 election). 

By the time of the next election we shall have forgotten all about the racist banter, the bullying and harassment.

Squeezed

The NDP and Green vote was squeezed but it wasn’t enough to make a difference. The NDP vote dropped from 12.7% in 2022 to 6.3% yesterday. The Green vote went down from 5.6% to 2.5%.

The New Blue Party, which could have eroded the PC lead, took only 1.2% of the vote down from 3.6% in 2022.

Province wide, Ford’s Progressive Conservatives took 42.9% of the popular vote – up from 40.8% in 2022.

Non voters win

More people in Newmarket-Aurora didn’t vote in yesterday’s election than did. 

Turnout Province wide was 45.4%. In Newmarket-Aurora 44.6%. (Based on Elections Ontario unofficial figures)

First-Past-the-Post is brutally efficient in delivering majority governments from a minority of the vote. As the table shows, it takes 119,364 votes to elect a Green MPP and 27,460 to elect a PC MPP. The more concentrated the vote geographically the higher the seat count.

Celebration

Last night the NDP was celebrating its return to Official Opposition status getting 27 seats on the back of 18.5% of the vote. The Liberals got 14 MPPs with 29.9% of the vote.

It seems to me the Liberals and NDP have got to reach some kind of accommodation to stop both parties from running against each other in winnable seats, splitting the vote and letting the PCs in through the middle.

Easier said than done.

But not impossible.

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Details

This latest poll from Mainstreet Research (26 February) projects Dawn Gallagher Murphy as the clear winner in tomorrow’s Provincial election in Newmarket-Aurora. 

I am not so sure. 

A lot will depend on turnout.

If people stay at home, believing the result in Newmarket-Aurora is a foregone conclusion, then Dawn Gallagher Murphy will win.

She has spent years courting every demographic under the sun, telling them what they want to hear. Putting on a face. She is relying on them to turn out.

Serfs

And yet, the same Dawn Gallagher Murphy has faced a blizzard of bad publicity for avoiding debates with other candidates and for her appalling personal qualities. She routinely bad mouths people. She treats her staff like serfs.

I simply don’t know if most people are aware of this. 

This has been a comatose election, called in the dead of winter, with all the polls predicting a third win in a row for Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives.

Lawn signs are virtually non-existent. One or two stakeboards on the major highways and that’s about it.

Polls influence elections

After the last election in 2022 which saw the lowest turnout ever in a provincial election, the province’s chief electoral officer controversially called for a ban on publishing the results of political polls in the two weeks before election day.

There is no chance of that happening any time soon (if ever) but it should start a debate especially if turnout tomorrow crashes through the floor. 

Tactical voting is key

Tactical voting can make the difference here in Newmarket Aurora if NDP and Green people vote for Ballard, the only candidate within striking distance of Gallagher Murphy.

And we know for a fact there are conservatives in our riding who wouldn't vote for Gallagher Murphy if you paid them.

So there is everything to play for.

I hope Chris Ballard does well tomorrow.

He has my vote.

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Details

The latest polling figures from Mainstreet Research (25 February) show support for Dawn Gallagher Murphy and Chris Ballard essentially frozen with a 4 to 5 point gap between them.

Without NDP and Green voters lending their support to Ballard on Thursday, Dawn Gallagher Murphy will be returned as Newmarket-Aurora’s MPP for the next four years.

It pains me to say it.

Machiavellian

I have never come across a candidate for public office who is so Machiavellian and so deeply flawed. Her own former employees denounce her as a fraud.

Indeed, Gallagher Murphy would have been in the dock this very morning at the Ontario Labour Relations Board had her former office manager, Teena Bogner, not settled her action against the MPP and signed a Non-Disclosure Agreement which buys her silence.

Gallagher Murphy’s acidic and unforgiving temperament would have been on full display.

Instead, we see a different version. A few days ago, speaking to the homelessness charity "Inn from the Cold" she promised money after the election:

“I am looking forward… coming on the other side of the election… making an announcement that will help finish the funding for that Inn from the Cold. So stay tuned to that great coming announcement.”

Why the dance of the seven veils?

Why didn’t she make the announcement before the election was called? 

Buying Votes. 

It is all part of a pattern.

Buying votes. Whatever the cost.

An Orwellian Gallagher Murphy last year praised Ford’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, for “maintaining a path to a balanced Budget” while the provincial Treasury loses billions in revenue from axing licence plate fees and handing out, on the eve of the election, cheques for $200 a head for every man, woman and child in Ontario, regardless of their income.

It was a flat-rate giveaway. Financed by borrowed money.

Deficit Financing

Ford is now promising a $100 billion tunnel under the 401 but who is paying for this fantasy?  With no plans to raise taxes, deficit financing is the only answer. This is what the Progressive Conservatives now believe in.

The “balanced budget” for so long a loadstar to true-blue conservatives is out the window. Now everything goes on the Provincial credit card, paying billions in interest every year. Interest payments that dwarf spending on higher education and on the entire justice system.

And all this was before the threat of Trump’s tariffs.

Don’t expect a critique of any of this from Dawn Gallaher Murphy.

That is way above her pay grade.

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Update at 3.30pm: From Newmarket Today: Newmarket-Aurora incumbent under fire for allegedly campaigning at charity event

MainStreet Research: Projected share of the vote in Newmarket-Aurora

Details

With three days to go Chris Ballard is within four percentage points of Newmarket-Aurora's PC candidate, Dawn Gallagher Murphy. 

The chart below shows the projected support for the candidates as of today, on a three day rolling average.

This means Ballard is within striking distance of Gallagher Murphy.

There are easily enough NDP and Green voters out there to close the gap if they go for Ballard.

The choice here in Newmarket-Aurora is not between Doug Ford, Marit Stiles, Bonnie Crombie or Mike Schreiner.

It is between Ballard and Gallagher Murphy, denounced by her own former employees as a loathesome bully, racist and hypocrite.

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How the projected vote has shifted over the last week

Note: The margin of error for the latest Mainstreet poll is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. This means that Gallagher Murphy's support could be overstated (or, indeed, understated) by 2.7%. The reference to a 95% confidence level means we would get the same result 95 times out of 100. If Gallagher Murphy's support is overstated it follows that Ballard's support is likely to be understated. The Newmarket-Aurora poll is an extrapolation from polling carried out across the Province. There are no polls being conducted exclusively in Newmarket-Aurora.

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