“If we do things together well, almost perfectly, we could be in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities.”  

So says the White House coronavirus co-ordinator, Dr Deborah Birx, who tells NBC’s Today show this morning that the “best case” applies when 100% of Americans follow the rules. Fat chance. (Click here to see the United States win the Covid race.)

This revelation comes on top of a jaw dropping statement on Saturday from the National Medical Director of NHS England, Professor Stephen Powis, that 

“If we can keep deaths below 20,000 we will have done very well in this epidemic.”

Good grief! 

How many deaths?

I can’t find an equivalent estimate of likely deaths in Canada – which, I suppose, is probably just as well. The stories that make it on to our front pages are disconcerting enough on their own.

In times like this we look for reassurance that the people in charge know what they are talking about.

The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, appears measured, guided always by medical and scientific advice. Unlike the fool south of the border, Donald Trump, who said on 22 January 2020:

“We have it totally under control.” 

On 10 February 2020 he follows up with this rib tickler:

“We’re in great shape in our country. We have 11 (COVID cases) and the 11 are getting better.” 

"Grown tremendously"

York Region’s medical officer of health, Dr Karim Kurgi, tells us only last Friday 27 March (which seems like an eternity)

"In the last few days, the number of cases in York Region has grown tremendously. This is no surprise, we expected this…"

He says we will get over this soon.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

In the UK people are preparing for the worst with the deputy chief medical adviser warning coronavirus restrictions could last six months. 

Stay at home - or else

And UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, himself infected with the dreaded virus, is warning people they must stay at home or risk being fined.

The Police, being the Police, are taking Johnson literally, sending drones out over the deserted Derbyshire Dales to catch people exercising their dogs in the middle of the countryside.

The South Wales Police have warned Stephen Kinnock MP, son of former Labour Party Leader Neil (78), not to visit on his Dad’s birthday – even if he stays two metres away. 

Over-the-top? I think so. Over-zealous? Perhaps.

But, then again, we in Canada are not looking at a best case scenario of 20,000 deaths.

At least I don’t think so.

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 Update: Ontario enhancing reporting on COVID-19