Gordon Prentice Blog - Gordon Prentice at Large

Details: Written by Gordon Prentice; Published: 07 September 2021

The polling aggregator 338Canada.com says Newmarket-Aurora is a toss-up between the Conservatives and Liberals.

Here are the latest odds of winning:

And here is the CBC Poll Tracker.

Details: Written by Gordon Prentice; Published: 07 September 2021

Newmarket-Aurora’s former MP and now Liberal candidate, Tony Van Bynen, told us affordable housing would be one of his top priorities.

But the record shows he hasn't mentioned it in the House of Commons in almost two years.

Except once to say it was a priority.

I was hoping he would have explained by now the difference between “affordable rental housing” and “attainable rental housing”. (See right from his flyer)

Is affordable housing attainable?

Is attainable housing affordable?

If attainable housing is affordable why not just say affordable?

Priorities

Van Bynen made his first speech in the House of Commons on 11 December 2019 when he told fellow MPs that climate change, affordable housing, infrastructure funding, health care and a need for a long-term fiscal plan would be his priorities. He had earlier told CTV news that “preserving local heritage” would also be a priority.

The Parliament of Canada website’s search engine allows constituents to find out what their MP has said and done in Ottawa and what their priorities are.

I see two references to climate change (on 20 April 2020) and one on infrastructure (on 26 January 2021). There are multiple references to health as Van Bynen sits on the Health Committee whose agenda has been dominated by the Covid crisis. There are no references to local heritage.

The 43^rd Parliament has, of course, been atypical with virtual votes and virtual speeches. The pandemic has turned the world upside down.

After his election in October 2019 Van Bynen took a while to find his feet. That's fair enough.

But, after two years, perhaps he can tell us what his priorities now are and if they've changed. And, if so, why?

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Details: Written by Gordon Prentice; Published: 06 September 2021

We should be grateful to the Aurora and Newmarket Chambers of Commerce for organising Federal Election debates.

The Prime Minister called the election in the shortest time allowed by law and everyone has been scrambling to catch up.

The Newmarket debate is, unfortunately, after advance voting has closed.

It is expected that at least one quarter of voters will have voted by 13 September 2021. This is one of the perils of calling a snap election on an truncated timetable.

The Aurora Chamber debate is this Wednesday, 8 September 2021 and will run from 4pm – 6pm.

The Newmarket debate is on Thursday 16 September 2021 from 12 noon – 1pm.

Both events are virtual.

Registration Free

Registration is free. You are asked to fill in the name of the registering organisation. Typing in “private individual” will do if that is what you are.

Once you have registered you will be sent a link.

You can register for the Aurora debate here.

And for the Newmarket debate here.

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Details: Written by Gordon Prentice; Published: 05 September 2021

Justin Trudeau's handgun ban is dead in the water.

He says the Provinces and Territories must decide whether they want a ban. It is not a matter for him.

The Liberal platform released earlier this week promises to:

"Set aside a minimum of $1billion to support provinces or territories who implement a ban on handguns across their jurisdiction, to keep our cities and communities safe."

This changes their 2019 policy which was to

"Give cities the power to restrict - and even ban - handguns." (right)

The Cities of Toronto and Montreal have both called for a nationwide ban, insisting that a patchwork quilt of different policies on handguns across municipalities is impractical and unworkable.

Our local Mayors in Newmarket and Aurora, John Taylor and Tom Mrakas, agree.

No handgun bans in Ontario

However, Ontario's Premier, Doug Ford, has made it crystal clear he would not legislate to ban handguns.

The Liberals have tried to get round the absurdities of their 2019 policy by transferring ultimate responsibility to the Provinces and Territories, effectively giving them a veto. If a Province or Territory doesn't want to ban handguns then it simply won't happen.

Assault weapons

Over the past few days the debate has been entirely focussed on "assault weapons" and how these should be defined.

But handguns are the biggest problem.

The most senior civil servant in the Ministry of Public Safety, Talal Dakalbab, told me earlier this year:

“Handguns are the most commonly used type of firearm in violent crime and gang related homicides.”

61.5% and 16.9%

Figures from Statistics Canada tell us there were 3,351 victims of violent crime involving a handgun in 2010. By 2018 the number of victims had soared to 4,601. This represents a staggering 61.5% of all victims of firearm related violence. By contrast, in the same year (2018) there were 1,262 victims of a rifle or shotgun assault, representing 16.9% of the total.

Despite being aware of this, the Prime Minister passes the parcel to the Provinces in full knowledge that some are implacably opposed to a handgun ban.

So far as I am aware there are no detailed background papers or analysis, published either by the Federal Government or the Liberal Party, explaining how the policy is expected to work in practice. The Liberal's gun control Bill (Bill C21) touted by the Prime Minister as game-changing legislation died on the Order Paper when he called the election and Parliament was dissolved. But questions remain unanswered.

$1,000,000,000

Is the $1 billion offer time-limited or open-ended? To qualify for a slice of the money will the Provincial legislation have to be in a prescribed form, set by the Federal Government?

How will the $1 billion be apportioned?

What happens if there is not a 100% take up? Will the opt-in Provinces get a bigger slice of the $1 billion?

What will this $1billion be spent on?

What estimates, if any, have been made of the cost of implementing and administering a Provincial handgun ban?

Does this opt-in opt-out handgun ban have any implications for the Criminal Code and on sentencing policy more generally? If so, what are they?

We could ask our Liberal candidate for answers to these questions.

But the self-styled "Voice for Fiscal Prudence" has no more idea than I do.

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Update on 5 September 2021: from the Sunday Star: Pressed on gun control Erin O'Toole still won't say which firearms he'd ban

Update on Monday 6 September 2021: from the Toronto Star: O'Toole reverses course on firearms ban

Update on 8 September 2021: from the Toronto Star: Conservatives and Liberals are both missing the biggest danger

Details: Written by Gordon Prentice; Published: 03 September 2021

Elections Canada has now confirmed there will be six candidates running in the Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora.

The indefatigable Dorian Baxter has, once again, thrown his hat into the ring. And Andre Gagnon is the new People’s Party candidate, replacing Lana Morgan who filled that role for a bit more than two weeks.

Generally speaking, Newmarket-Aurora is a prosperous place but with pockets of deprivation and poverty. The median household income is $98,293 ranking it 35 out of Canada’s 338 ridings.

Toss-up

The latest polls say the riding is a toss-up between the Conservatives and Liberals. Of course, much can change between now and 10 September when advance voting begins but, as I tap this out, it looks too close to call.

Yesterday, the polling aggregator 338Canada.com put the odds of the Conservatives winning Newmarket-Aurora at 69%, the Liberals at 31%

The key to winning an election is to (a) identify where support lies and (b) get those supporters out to vote. At the last election in 2019, 67.3% of people on the electoral roll voted, a smidgeon more than the national average of 67%.

Getting out the vote

Persuading the non-voters to turn out can make the difference in a tight race but this is easier said than done.

Political parties look at past results as a guide to the future. But this has obvious limitations. The way people in Newmarket-Aurora voted on 21 October 2019 is no guarantee they will vote the same way in 2021. All the more so when 75% of the electorate say they believe this is an unnecessary election.

Pundits and commentators tell us to expect an increase in advance voting and in mail-in ballots. The available evidence suggests that those who vote earlier tend to be more fixed in their political affiliation.

The voting maps

The maps below show the voting on polling day on 21 October 2019. I have used the riding map of Newmarket-Aurora, produced by Elections Canada, as a template as is shows the boundaries of each polling district (the smallest unit for which figures are available). Each polling district is then colour-coded to show the level of support for the four main political parties. The voting data on which I rely is from Elections Canada.

What do the maps tells us?

The Liberal vote is fairly evenly spread across the riding, but preponderately on the West side of Bayview Avenue.

The Conservative heartland is in Aurora, notably in the southeast corner around the Frank Stronach properties. A high Conservative vote is more likely outside the urban core. The centre of Newmarket is not strong Conservative territory, nor are the main corridors.

The NDP vote is strongly concentrated in Newmarket and along the major corridors. The Green vote too is stronger in urban Newmarket but there is an even spread across the riding.

Older people are more likely to vote (always true)

There are also mobile polls which visit residential homes and care centres. The data shows high turnout (sometimes very high) at these locations. The political parties generally make these places a priority. Older people are more likely to vote than those in their teens and twenties.

Last night we saw the first French language debate between the Party leaders (other than the Greens who have no seats in Quebec). The commentators say there was no knock-out blow and they all, more or less, held their own.

But the momentum is clearly with the opposition parties.

The unnecessary election

The idea has now taken root that this is an unnecessary election.

Maybe this will change in the seven days before people start voting in the advance polls.

But if it doesn’t, the Liberals are toast.

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Updated on 4 September 2021 to include Newmarket Today profile of new PPC candidate Andre Gagnon.