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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 14 October 2019

The Conservatives are the likely winners of the Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora whose current MP, Liberal Kyle Peterson, is standing down to spend more time with his family (seriously). 

Kyle’s replacement, the 69 year old former banker Tony Van Bynen, discovered he was a Liberal a few months ago when the vacancy opened up. He wants us to believe it is a close-run thing:

“This is going to be the closest election we’ve ever seen in Newmarket-Aurora.”

Liberals nominate PPC candidate to get him into the race

Perhaps this is why he and other leading local Liberals signed the nomination papers of the People’s Party candidate Andrew McCaughtrie – to shave votes away from the Conservative former MP, the lacklustre Lois Brown. Curiously, this devious manoeuvre has not been picked up by the local press. But if, against all expectations, the old banker wins by a very slim margin his decision to back McCaughtrie will have paid dividends. 

In its latest projection 338canada.com gives the People’s Party of Canada 2.6% of the vote in Newmarket-Aurora with a 1.7% margin of error either way - but enough to make a difference in a very tight race.

Why do I believe Brown will win?

The Conservatives and Liberals are both within striking distance of each other in the national polls. The CBC Poll Tracker says this today:

“The Liberals and Conservatives remain neck-and-neck in both national support and in the seat projections, but with the two major parties both below 33 per cent support nationwide a majority government looks unlikely. The New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois have momentum following the debates, while the Greens are holding their support.”

The Ford Factor: Contaminating the Conservative brand

But in Ontario, the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives. This could be due to the Doug Ford effect and any number of other factors such as demography.

On the face of it, Newmarket-Aurora should be a Conservative riding given its profile. Household incomes are way above the regional average. The election website 338canada.com now says the riding is “leaning to the Conservatives” and puts the probability of the Conservatives winning at 77% and the Liberals 23%.

For anyone who was downtown yesterday this takes a bit of believing. There were about 300 people hanging around for hours outside the Lil Hungry Brew Hops hoping to see the Prime Minister and hear what he had to say. 

For all their razzamatazz and optimism the Liberals are taking nothing for granted. They are warning people not to waste their votes. But is a vote for the NDP or the Greens actually wasted?

NDP and the Liberals

The NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has long said he will not prop up a minority Conservative Government. But he is now saying quite explicitly that he is open to the possibility of making some kind of arrangement with the Liberals if they do not win an overall Parliamentary majority.

Support for the NDP is holding up well in the riding. At the last Federal Election in 2015 the NDP took 8.5% of the vote. Current projections give the Party 10.5% with a margin of error of 3.7% either way. 

The Greens are in an even stronger position. With a very good candidate in 2015 they took 2.4% of the vote. But now they are projected to get a very significant 9% (with a margin of error of 3.3% either way).

These days the climate emergency is never out of the news and I simply cannot see Green supporters, in large numbers, moving over to the Liberals who have spent $4.5 billion buying the Trans-Mountain Pipeline. 

Cross-over voters

But these cross-over voters do exist. When the Prime Minister was visiting Newmarket’s Main Street yesterday I got chatting to a leading local environmentalist sporting a Liberal lapel sticker. I was told it was to keep the Conservatives out. 

A minority of voters are exercised by constitutional matters such as electoral reform. After Trudeau’s volte-face on the issue I cannot see them going Liberal again.

And what about the candidates? Do they really matter?

Most people cast their votes based on the Party and its leadership. Insofar as local candidates matter it works at the margins. But in a close election they can count.

Lois Brown's prior engagement

True, Lois Brown is a well-known name but she hibernates between elections. She says she has knocked on a million doors in the riding but she has been invisible for years – with no presence in the local press and media. She even failed to show up for one of the candidates debates claiming she had a prior engagement that she couldn’t tell us about. Oh please!

The secretive old banker Tony Van Bynen has been around for decades but I sense we still really don’t know him. He plays his cards close to his chest. When I broke the story of his second severance payment of $67,000 from York Region I got thousands of hits on my modest little website. The Geiger-counter started beeping like mad. 

Maybe people from the other side of the globe were interested. Or, perhaps, Conservatives who are never going to vote for him anyway. Who knows? But the needle moved and Van Bynen – who never complains and never explains – was forced to tell us why he kept this second payment a secret for so long. 

Do these things matter? To most people, probably not.

Strong candidates

The Green candidate, Walter Bauer, has shown himself to be an astute campaigner, never short of an answer on climate change nor on a host of other issues.

For the sure-footed Yvonne Kelly this is her second time around as the NDP candidate and she has shown a deep knowledge and understanding of the riding and the problems it faces such as housing affordability. Her vote is going to hold up.

So where does that leave the incumbent Liberals?  

I’ve always believed lawn signs give a pretty good indication of the way the wind is blowing. Maybe that’s why Lois Brown blatantly disregarded the Regional By-law and planted her giant election signs alongside regional roads in defiance of all the rules. (Like this one on the right at Leslie and Srigley)

Do lawn signs make a difference?

But, seriously, dare we rely on something as boringly analogue as a lawn sign in this shiny digital age? Researchers in Calgary tell us there can be a positive correlation between the number of lawn signs on private property (not the big signs on regional roads and public space) and the eventual result. And there is also the subliminal messaging the signs send out to people just going about their day-to-day business.

You can hear all about it in this CBC podcast.

Around my neighbourhood (which is Van Bynen’s too) there are plenty of Liberal lawn signs. But Lois Brown is not far behind (if indeed she is). And I see a healthy number of NDP lawn signs with the occasional Green sprouting here and there.

Barring an upset, I am steeling myself for four years with Lois as my MP.

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Liberal mover and shaker Wasim Jarrah records it for posterity on his cell phone. 

Kyle Peterson ex MP bottom left applauds. Van Bynen smiles. The PM is slightly hoarse after a thousand stump speeches.

Liberal fervour unleashed - and curious bystanders

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 13 October 2019

The Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be in downtown Newmarket tomorrow (Sunday 13th) at 2.45pm outside Lil Brew Hops at 209a Main Street South – just a stone’s throw from the site of one of the Town’s most significant heritage properties which was demolished without permission on Thursday by the rogue developer Bob Forrest. 

The Liberal candidate and former Newmarket Mayor, Tony Van Bynen, tells supporters he is excited to be welcoming Justin Trudeau:

“to show the momentum we’ve been building in Newmarket-Aurora!”

I hope Van Bynen will show the Prime Minister the empty and desolate spot on Main Street South where the Anne Mary Simpson house used to stand.

Prime Minister will see the demolition site

Van Bynen should tell the Prime Minister this was where the first female pharmacist in Ontario had her apothecary.

And Van Bynen should tell the Prime Minister he is determined to find out who was responsible for the demolition of one of the Town’s most significant historic properties. And he will call for that person to be prosecuted.

Campaign flummery

Anything less than this is just election campaign flummery.

As it happens, last week I received a robocall from Tony Van Bynen telling me:

“This is going to be the closest election we’ve ever seen in Newmarket-Aurora.”

You can decide for yourself how things are going after watching this excellent video profile on Newmarket-Aurora which CPAC says is "a riding to watch”.

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Update: And this is how Newmarket Today is reporting on recent developments.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 12 October 2019

The developer Bob Forrest is responsible for the demolition of one of the Town’s most significant historic buildings, 184-186 Main Street South, situated in the heart of Newmarket’s downtown Heritage Conservation District. 

Clearly no-one could order the demolition of the building (other than in circumstances where public safety was at risk) than the owner, Bob Forrest. (Photo shows Bob Forrest, centre, and his wife Colleen.)

According to Newmarket Today the demolition happened overnight between Wednesday October 9 and Thursday October 10. The rubble and debris was removed in short order.

"Take it down!"

On Thursday 10 October at 2pm, Dave Hunter, one of the owners of the Main Street business Lemon and Lime, was in conversation with a site supervisor (probably from Lions Demolition). Also present was the Newmarket Historical Society stalwart Ron Pilfrey. They both heard the supervisor say the building was unsound and that it would have taken $100,000 to fix

“so the owner said take it down.”

 We shall get full details in due course.

The Town is currently doing its own investigation but this is damning evidence that comes from two long-standing and respected members of the local community. 

Mayor "infuriated"

The Mayor, John Taylor, told the press yesterday that he was infuriated by the destruction. He has every right to feel betrayed. On 4 May 2018 he told us:

“The agreement reached will see the Clock Tower and the store fronts redeveloped to full use with NO new construction.”

In fact, the agreement between the Town and Forrest’s Main Street Clock Inc allowed Forrest to get up to $100,000 of public money for the restoration of the old heritage properties.

Section 10 (b) of the agreement between the Town and Forrest’s MSCI says this:

“The Town will provide access to the Newmarket Downtown Development Committee (NDDC) incentive program up to a cap of $100,000 to the extent that the New Development Concept qualifies and meets program criteria...”  

The program criteria does not mention demolition. The agreement did allow for the extensive remodelling of the interiors of the protected buildings. As far as I know there was no inventory taken of the heritage value of the interiors.  I raised the issue at the time but, like many others, I sensed the Town was battle weary and just wanted to bring things to a conclusion. 

Museum exhibits

When he was trying to sell his Project Landscape condo concept to us Forrest told us preserving heritage is not about: 

"freezing old buildings in time and treating them as museum exhibits".

We now know that in Forrest’s perverted Orwellian double-speak preserving heritage can mean demolishing what you are purportedly trying to save. A bit like destroying the village in order to save it.

Bob Forrest cannot be trusted to keep his side of the bargain. He is, truly, the Barbarian at the gate.

If, as I believe, the evidence shows that Forrest ordered the demolition of the irreplaceable historic property at 184-186 Main Street South he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

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Note: The penalties for contravening the Ontario Heritage Act are set out in s69. The implications of a STOP ORDER are set out in s32.

Update Saturday 12 October 2019 at 21.00: And this is how Newmarket Today is reporting on recent developments.

Photo: April 2019 showing rear of 184-186 Main Street South (where orange screen is) taken from Market Square.  

Lions Demolition and excavation. The signs were subsequently removed as they gave the impression - correctly as it turns out - that the work would involve demolition. Photo taken in April 2019.

Details

Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 10 October 2019

An historic commercial building at 184-186 Main Street South, owned by developer Bob Forrest, was demolished earlier today - without permission from the Town of Newmarket. (Photo: building on right as it was and, below, after demolition)

The first female pharmacist in Ontario, Anne Mary Simpson, ran her apothecary from this heritage building. 

Town rejects Forrest's Plan

The developer Bob Forrest tried for years to get planning approval for a condo in Market Square which would involve the demolition of a string of historic commercial properties on Main including this one at 184-186 dating from the mid 1800s. He was ultimately unsuccessful and struck a deal with the Town to restore the buildings together with the landmark Clock Tower and put them up for sale.

Only the historic plaque cemented into the sidewalk in front of 184-186 Main Street South remains to remind us of what was once there.

The Town's Heritage Registry describes the architectural features of 184-186 Main Street in this way:

"A two-storey frame block clad in siding with roughcast plaster beneath and surmounted by a gable roof ‒ one in a row of historic buildings anchored by the Old Post Office."

"Protected"

The building was supposedly protected from demolition.

The Town tells us:

"Newmarket has designated 43 properties under Part IV of the Ontario Heritage Act​ and 72 properties as part of the Lower Main Street South Heritage Conservation District (HCD) under Part V of the Ontario Heritage Act. These properties are designated due to their cultural and architectural heritage value. They are protected from demolition and changes to the building must be sensitive to their heritage value."

In the early days the building was owned by Charles Simpson who was apprenticed under Dr John Bentley for seven years to become an apothecary. He ran his business from this property. He died during a devastating typhoid epidemic that decimated Newmarket in 1879, taking the lives of one in every 10 people.

Irreplaceable

As part of the long debate on Forrest’s plans, the architectural consultants Goldsmith Borgal reviewed the buildings Forrest wanted to demolish, saving only their facades. This is their pen portrait of what has now disappeared forever: 

"This two storey frame structure is the oldest extant building on the block, and perhaps one of the oldest buildings on Main Street South. Dating to the early nineteenth century (likely c1840), it may be the building referenced in an early drawing of the street as the Smith & Emprey General Store. Smith and Emprey was established in 1837 and was located immediately north of the North American Hotel.

The building at 184 Main Street South is also represented on the 1862 plan of the Village on lot 19. Charles Hargrave Simpson, whose wife, Anne Mary Simpson, was Ontario's first woman druggist, once owned the building. Simpson operated an apothecary from 1886 to 1914."

I don’t know why it was demolished but I can guess what we shall all be told tomorrow. We shall be reminded there was permission to remove the structures at the rear. Perhaps we shall be told this left the main building in a structurally unsound condition and it had to be torn down for safety reasons. I don’t know. 

Scandalous

Forrest or his agents are responsible for the scandalous destruction of an irreplaceable part of the Town’s history. 

We need to be told how this catastrophe was ever allowed to happen.

What was the precise sequence of events?

What safeguards were ostensibly in place to stop this sort of thing happening?

Who was responsible on-site?

Who took the decision to demolish and for what reasons?

Who was consulted at the Town?

Were professional structural engineers called in?

After a campaign to save our historic Main Street lasting many years what a tragedy it is to see this happen.

Those responsible must be held to account.

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Update on 11 October 2019: The penalties for contravening the Ontario Heritage Act are set out in s69.

The Town issued this Statement on 10 October 2019:

• Main Street Clock Inc. Development Update 

  Created: Thursday, October 10, 2019

  The Town of Newmarket has recently been made aware of the demolition of 184 and 186 Main Street. The original scope of work and conditions for the building permits were only to conduct interior alternations to the building.  
   
  The Town of Newmarket is issuing a STOP WORK ORDER on all buildings related to the Main Street Clock Inc. Development (188, 190, 192 and 194 Main Street) until further notice.
   
  The Town of Newmarket is committed to protecting the heritage of the Downtown Area to ensure it is preserved, restored and beautified. Newmarket is taking this matter seriously and will be conducting a thorough investigation.  We will provide an update to the community as soon as possible.
   
  For more information on the Clocktower Application, please visit newmarket.ca/clocktower

The scale of the destruction concealed by the hoardings on the Main Street South side. But everything has gone.

The Clock Tower has lost its next door neighbour

The plaque is all that remains: "The Charles Hargrave Simpson Building: Ontario's first woman druggist operated an apothecary here from 1886 to 1914."

Another view of the totality of the devastation. Looking from Main Street towards Market Square

It wasn't closed for restoration and repairs.

Looking from Market Square towards Main Street. Nothing is left of the heritage building.

This is the Road Occupancy permit attached to the wooden hoarding at 184-186 Main Street South. "Sidewalk will be occupied with overhead protect (scaffolding with pedestrian through-way) for doing renovations on exterior storefronts at 184-194 Main Street South..."