This latest poll from Mainstreet Research (26 February) projects Dawn Gallagher Murphy as the clear winner in tomorrow’s Provincial election in Newmarket-Aurora. 

I am not so sure. 

A lot will depend on turnout.

If people stay at home, believing the result in Newmarket-Aurora is a foregone conclusion, then Dawn Gallagher Murphy will win.

She has spent years courting every demographic under the sun, telling them what they want to hear. Putting on a face. She is relying on them to turn out.

Serfs

And yet, the same Dawn Gallagher Murphy has faced a blizzard of bad publicity for avoiding debates with other candidates and for her appalling personal qualities. She routinely bad mouths people. She treats her staff like serfs.

I simply don’t know if most people are aware of this. 

This has been a comatose election, called in the dead of winter, with all the polls predicting a third win in a row for Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives.

Lawn signs are virtually non-existent. One or two stakeboards on the major highways and that’s about it.

Polls influence elections

After the last election in 2022 which saw the lowest turnout ever in a provincial election, the province’s chief electoral officer controversially called for a ban on publishing the results of political polls in the two weeks before election day.

There is no chance of that happening any time soon (if ever) but it should start a debate especially if turnout tomorrow crashes through the floor. 

Tactical voting is key

Tactical voting can make the difference here in Newmarket Aurora if NDP and Green people vote for Ballard, the only candidate within striking distance of Gallagher Murphy.

And we know for a fact there are conservatives in our riding who wouldn't vote for Gallagher Murphy if you paid them.

So there is everything to play for.

I hope Chris Ballard does well tomorrow.

He has my vote.

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