Projections from the polling organisation Mainstreet Research continue to put the racist bully Dawn Gallagher Murphy way ahead of her main challenger Chris Ballard.

But Ballard has recovered support as the NDP and Green vote is squeezed.

Neither the NDP nor the Greens can win in Newmarket-Aurora. 

The New Blue Party - to the right of Ford's PCs - will take votes from Gallagher Murphy. In the 2022 election the New Blue candidate got 1,520 votes (3.6%).

The vanity candidate Yuri Duboisky from the Moderate Party is running again. Last time he got 118 votes.

Low turnout

Gallagher Murphy will be hoping for another low turnout. The 2022 election had the lowest turnout in Ontario's history.

The Progressive Conservatives are more efficient at getting out their vote - it is older and more affluent.

And the PCs in Newmarket-Aurora do much of their campaigning under the radar such as providing free meals for targeted demographics.

In the 2022 election Dawn Gallagher Murphy splashed out an eye watering $122,025 on campaign expenses more than double the next highest spender.

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