The Federal Election on 21 October 2019 will be the second on the new riding boundaries for Newmarket-Aurora which were established in 2013. Before then the riding encompassed the two towns but now the southern boundary is at Wellington Street, severing Aurora, and the northern one is at Green Lane in East Gwillimbury.
It is more prosperous than the average Canadian riding and leans Conservative.
Check the 2016 Census for Newmarket here and Aurora here. And to put it all in context here is an infographic from Statistics Canada showing income for Canadians in 2017. And the latest Canadian income survey is here.
So far we have four candidates in the field. The sitting MPP, Liberal Kyle Peterson, is standing down after one term and the new Liberal standard-bearing is ex-banker Tony Van Bynen, twenty years his senior. The Conservatives are running the 64 year old re-tread Lois Brown who represented the riding from 2008-2015.
The NDP is once again putting its faith in Yvonne Kelly who ran a spirited campaign in 2015 but came third. She is an acknowledged expert in key social policy fields, chairing Ontario’s Social Planning Network and co-chairing the Social Planning Council of York Region.
The affable Walter Bauer, a professional engineer and expert witness, represents the Green Party. He ran unsuccessfully in Richmond Hill in last year’s Provincial election. He is often seen outside Christine Elliott’s constituency office on Fridays taking part in the regular protests about the Provincial Government’s cutbacks.
Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada has yet to select a candidate but is expected to do so. The irrepressible Dorian Baxter is also expected to throw his hat into the ring.
Odds on a Conservative win
The website 338Canada.com puts the odds of the Progressive Conservatives winning Newmarket-Aurora at 69% and the Liberals 31%. The website electionprediction.org whose evaluations are "entirely subjective" gives the seat to the Conservatives.
But who knows? The Liberals have a strong and resilient brand which could mask the obvious flaws of their standard-bearer, Tony Van Bynen, who is coming out of a comfortable retirement after being (in his own words) "steadfastly bipartisan" throughout his 18 years in municipal politics.
It is undeniably the case that the Conservatives are not polling as strongly in Ontario as elsewhere. This is likely to be the Ford factor at work. Buck-a-Beer is uniquely unpopular here. The latest polling averages in Ontario put the Liberals on 36.9% and the Conservatives trailing at 32.7%.
The old duopoly
Of course, it is not simply a choice between the Conservatives and the Liberals, the old duopoly. The Greens are polling well. And we shall see if, against all the pundits’ expectations, the NDP can get traction.
The key, as always, is persuading people to vote. In the Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora in 2015 there were 83,351 electors. Turnout was 68.1% - just higher than the Ontario average of 67.8%.