The latest projection from Éric Grenier - who does the CBC's Poll Tracker - puts the Liberals as the likely winners of the election in Newmarket-Aurora.

This is the state of play on Saturday 5 April 2025.

Grenier defines likely and unlikely this way:

Likely means the party has a high likelihood of winning the seat, though there is an outside chance (less than 5%) that another party could win.

The converse, unlikely, means the party is not in serious contention for the seat, but there is an outside chance that, with enough polling and modelling error and/or local dynamics at play, the party could pull off an upset. This is the flipside of the “Likely” rating.

The big unknown is whether the NDP candidate, Anna Gollen, will secure the 100 endorsements from local electors which she needs to get on the ballot paper. We shall know on Monday.

If it is a straight fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives there is little doubt Jennifer McLachlan will be our next MP.

That said, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

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