The respected Polling Aggregator site 338Canada tells us Newmarket-Aurora's sitting MPP, Dawn Gallagher Murphy, has a 97% chance of holding on to the seat she first won in June 2022. 

The polling guru, Eric Grenier, says in today's projection there is an outside chance the Liberals could win in Newmarket-Aurora. But he puts the odds at less than 5%. The NDP and the Greens are not even rated as outside possibilities.

No polls are being conducted in Newmarket-Aurora itself. Grenier projects the result:

"using a proportional swing method based on the difference between the results of the last election and current polls. For example, if a party managed 20 per cent in a given region in the last election and is now polling at 40 per cent in that same region, the party's last election results in each riding in that region are doubled. This swing is applied to every party in each riding."

The election is now only eleven days away and Dawn Gallagher Murphy, stressed-out bully and hypocrite, will be returned to Queen's Park unless something wholly unexpected happens.

Tomorrow's leaders' debate could be a make or break.

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