There are no riding polls in Newmarket-Aurora.
We have extrapolations from polling elsewhere. This is the latest from 338Canada.com.
The wild card is the People's Party of Canada.
At the last Federal Election in 2019 only 1% of Newmarket-Aurora voters backed the PPC. That percentage is almost certain to increase and the votes will be disproportionately drawn from the Conservatives.
Van Bynen lends a hand to the PPC
In 2019 the Liberal candidate, Tony Van Bynen, and other leading local Liberals signed the nomination papers of the then PPC candidate, Andrew McCaughtrie, to get his name on the ballot paper and syphon votes from the Conservatives.
A candidate's nomination papers must be signed by 100 registered electors. Elections Canada recommend candidates submit nomination forms signed by 150 electors to cover any mishaps.
I shall be checking with Elections Canada to see if Van Bynen or any Liberals signed Andre Gagnon's nomination papers. But, this time, I rather suspect not.